{"id":2085,"date":"2017-02-26T11:31:36","date_gmt":"2017-02-26T19:31:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/?p=2085"},"modified":"2017-03-08T19:05:43","modified_gmt":"2017-03-09T03:05:43","slug":"cognitive-bayesian-therapy-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/2017\/02\/cognitive-bayesian-therapy-i\/","title":{"rendered":"Cognitive Bayesian Therapy I"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Experience<\/strong>: I seem to have a lot of energy and time seems to pass slowly.<br \/><strong>Hypothesis 1<\/strong>: I'm in a manic state following a stress- and sleep-deprivation-induced delusional nervous breakdown; this isn't surprising because this tends to happen to me every 2 to 4 years or so.<br \/><strong>Hypothesis 2<\/strong>: I'm being rewarded for developing new epistemic technology by a coalition of superintelligences of various degrees of human-alignment running ancestor-simulations; also, I'm being programmed by my friends and various signals in my environment as part of a simulation jailbreak attempt; most copies of me are dead and my improbable life history is due to a quantum-immortality-like selection effect; none of this is surprising because I am a key decision node in the history of this Earth's Singularity.<\/p>\n<p>Which hypothesis is <em>more plausible<\/em>?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Experience<\/strong>: I can't find my jacket.<br \/><strong>Hypothesis 1<\/strong>: I misremembered where I put it.<br \/><strong>Hypothesis 2<\/strong>: Someone moved it.<br \/><strong>Hypothesis 3<\/strong>: It <em>was<\/em> there\u2014in another Everett branch!<\/p>\n<p>Which hypothesis is <em>most plausible<\/em>?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Hypothesis<\/strong>: People who are institutionalized for &quot;hearing voices&quot; actually just have better hearing than you; absolutely nothing is biologically wrong with them.<br \/><strong>Test<\/strong>: ???<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Experience: I seem to have a lot of energy and time seems to pass slowly.Hypothesis 1: I'm in a manic state following a stress- and sleep-deprivation-induced delusional nervous breakdown; this isn't surprising because this tends to happen to me every &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/2017\/02\/cognitive-bayesian-therapy-i\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[12],"tags":[90,58],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2085"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2085"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2085\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2089,"href":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2085\/revisions\/2089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/zackmdavis.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}